Last week's Mc Laughlin Group reported that both Bush and Kerry have the same data about how the electorial college will go this year and it looks like this:

Bush will carry Alabama,Alaska,Colorado,Georgia,Idaho,Kansas,
Louisiana,
Mississippi ,Montana,Nebraska,North Carolina,North Dakota,Oaklahoma,South Carolina,South Dakota,Texas,Utah,Virginia, and Wyoming for a total of 168 electorial votes.

Kerry will carry California,Connecticut,Delaware,Hawaii,Illinois,

Maryland,
Massachusetts,Michigan,New Jersey,New York,Rhode Island,Vermont,Washington and the District of Columbia for a total of 196 electorial votes.

Out of the remaining states Arizonia,Arkansas,Indiana,Minnesota ,Missouri,Nevada,Ohio [which along with Florida is really too close to call] and Tennessee are leaning for Bush ,which gives him 84 more electorial votes,added to his 168 gives him a total of 252 electorial votes,18 short of what he needs to win.

Florida,Iowa,Maine,New Hampshire,New Mexico,Oregon,Pennsylvania,West Virginia and Wisconson are leaning for Kerry,which gives him 96 electorial votes,added to his 196,gives Kerry 286 electorial votes,16 more than needed to win.

Don't look for Kerry to carry Pennsylvania. Although traditionally democrat, a lot of Pennsylvanians are also conservative. The gay marriage issue is a turn off. We pay a lot of taxes (mostly state taxes though) and tax cuts look good to us. Kerry is promising to eliminate Bush's tax cuts. The state just raised taxes 30%. I think Bush will pull ahead on the tax issue. We had one of those planes of 9-11 go down very near here. The majority of folks I've talked to support Bush in the War on Terror.

Medicare is an issue. The problem for Kerry is that most of the elderly know Ted Kennedy wrote the bill. Screwed by the Dems again.

Bush and Cheney have been campaigning hard in Pennsylvania, and have been for a couple of years. Cheney vacations in Ligoneer, which isn't too far from me and where I grew up. I think Kerry is going to have a hard time in Pa.

so, they are predicted the election already ????


:rolleyes: :bs: :rolleyes: :bs: :rolleyes: :bs: :rolleyes: :bs: :rolleyes: :bs:

Kraw-

Its no different than seeing a CNN poll saying 'Kerry leads Bush by 4%" or vice versa.

The difference is, they did it in each state, so they can go by how the electoral college will vote, not the popular vote (which we know matters not)

I care not right now what the polls say. Its too early.

Florida,Iowa,Maine,New Hampshire,New Mexico,Oregon,Pennsylvania,West Virginia and Wisconson are leaning for Kerry,which gives him 96 electorial votes,added to his 196,gives Kerry 286 electorial votes,16 more than needed to win.


I will give my prediction. These are the states where the election will be won or lost. Bush will win Florida by a margin this time, I am fairly certain. The Kerry campaign is actually going to focus on Ohio, instead.

Kerry will likely win New Hampshire, but I am predicting that he will lose New Mexico and Wisconson.

What about Nader. Won't he steal some of Kerry's thunder?

Yes. In fact an NBC poll purposely left him out because it only weakened Kerrys dropping poll numbers even further.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4499877/

Originally posted by Kraw
so, they are predicted the election already ????




Like it or not Kraw ,this is the modern world and it uses such data and the data is virtually always right.

In 1992 Bill Clinton knew three days before the election there was absolutely no way he could lose the electorial college.

I'd say for 90% or so of the country the election already is accurately predicted [does anybody think Kerry will win Alabama or that Bush will carry Vermont?].

The election probably will be decided by Florida and Ohio, data shows those two are too close to call [just like they were in 2000] and they will decide the victor of the election.

In Ohio,the Republican Govenor and Republican State Senate have put this state in the same straits Gray Davis did in California,and that could tip it for Kerry [not to mention the help of Dennis Kunicinch ,who has enormous clout in Cleveland ].

Every person of color in Florida won't forget what Jeb Bush ,"Cruella Deville" Harris and Bush's other cronies did in 2000,and will make sure an honest election will be held there this year.

As to Pennsylvania,in 2000 a person from a more bucolic part of Pennsylvania [like Ponycar is] said the same thing to me that Ponycar did ,almost word for word,Gore carried the state.

The guy told me "Gore won the sate,but I don't know anybody who voted for him",I said "Do you know anybody in Philadelphia or Pittsburg?" he said "No".





Originally posted by Ponycar_302
What about Nader. Won't he steal some of Kerry's thunder?


So far it looks like he won't in the electorial college,he possibly could in Ohio and/or Florida,but he is not running on the Green ticket this year,the last time he only got 3% [that did make the difference in Florida], I personally know lots of people who voted for Nader in 2000 who won't this year,not because they want Kerry in,but because they want Bush out.

I think there's many people who voted for Nader in 2000 who are like the ones I know.

I think Syria, North Korea, Red China, Somalia, Lebanon, Nigeria, Iran will also go into Kerry's column.:D

aren't these the same pollsters who had Howard Dean as a sure thing to be the democrat nominee a few months ago :rolleyes:

Newsflash, for what its worth, Kerry is sinking in the polls against Bush and now trails him.

Not that polls matter this early but since it was brought up.