I am predicting that by November 3rd the national average cost for a gallon of gas will be $3.75 or lower.

I'm not claiming this is any sort of a government conspiracy, because I don't think it is. I think it's corporate price fixing at the hands of Big Oil. The oil company execs know that if a Democrat is elected to the white house AND the party retains control of Congress, that life will be much harder for them, to the tune of windfall taxes and stricter regulatory practices, amongst other things. They also know that if a Republican wins the presidential election, that they will be much more likely to continue raking in record profits off the backs and wallets of the American public.

So, in order to help ensure that the cost of gas is not a driving (pun intended) force in who votes for whom, the oil companies will lower gas prices. Just like they did last time.

I predict you'll be wrong. :)

I think around that time, when the Northern Hemisphere is on the cusp of another winter, when demand for natural gas and heating oil zooms skyward, I think the price of all petroleum products will feel upward pressure.

AS much as I would like for your prediction to be true, I'm gonna have to say it's off.

It's not too likely that any fall in that commodity would be anywhere near as dramatic as your prediction states.

A modest lowering, probably... even likely ( as you aptly stated, this stuff is timed for political impact).. but greed coupled with the world price will keep it near where it currently is.

I remember a $.50+ drop in price in two weeks leading up to the last elections. Just saying that it'll probably happen again.

Hey, I'll take what I can get...

How much does the price of crude have to fall to make it happen though?

( Probaly not a penny... since this will be just another political stunt .. IF it happens)

about an $18 per bbl drop would cause a 50 cent drop at the pump

I think we will be there in October, I could be wrong though

I thought I was wrong once, but it turns out I was mistaken about that :rolleyes:

Hopefully it's 50 cents if the bubble pops and the speculators jump out of windows to all our delight.

I'll do you one better and say it'll be 3.50. The bubble has burst and it's available for 3.85 where I live, and it takes weeks for the effect of lowering the barrel price to get to the pumps.

It's down to $4.16 right by my apartment. I initially said $3.50 when talking with friends, but decided to be cautious and only officially claim $3.75.

I'm not claiming this is any sort of a government conspiracy, because I don't think it is. I think it's corporate price fixing at the hands of Big Oil.

One problem with this thesis is that the big oil companies no longer control, even indirectly, most of the available reserves in the world. The trend toward nationalization by producer countries has picked up pretty dramatically over the last few decades. I'm embarassed to say I've forgotten most of the exact details on this, but I did read about it in Kevin Phillips' most recent book, Bad Money: Reckless Finance, Failed Politics, and the Global Crisis of American Capitalism. Assuming Phillips has this correct, Exxon Mobil and Royal Dutch Shell, etc., no longer really control the flow of oil, ARAMCO, the government of Iran, etc., do. And I doubt they've got the same interest in electing candidate A over candidate B that a US based oil company would.

Another problem is the descent of the US dollar into monopoly money status. $3.75/gallon presumes we've got a yardstick that is going to look basically the same in a few months as it does today. And I'd say that at this point it is inevitable that this yardstick is going to keep on shrinking for quite some time...though how much it shrinks over the next few months I don't think anyone can say. It sure as hell isn't going to be getting any longer, though.

We're already seeing $3.75, and I've heard reported on local radio below $3.70.

I think you're right, because I just paid 3.84 yesterday (cash price; 4 cents more for credit or debit) and I'll bet it will be 3.75 by the end of next week, but it has nothing to do with the campaign.

I am predicting that by November 3rd the national average cost for a gallon of gas will be $3.75 or lower.Could be. I bought gas in Wisconsin for $3.79 last weekend. My father bought gas in Ohio for $3.49 today.

I think it's corporate price fixing at the hands of Big Oil. The oil company execs know that if a Democrat is elected to the white house AND the party retains control of Congress, that life will be much harder for them, to the tune of windfall taxes and stricter regulatory practices, amongst other things. They also know that if a Republican wins the presidential election, that they will be much more likely to continue raking in record profits off the backs and wallets of the American public.There are two flaws in this reasoning:

1) Oil companies do not set the price of oil on the market.

2) Democrats and/or Republicans do not set the price of oil either.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080819/ap_on_bi_ge/oil_prices

National average is $3.73.

I should have said the CA average price.

But it'll jump up in a couple weeks for Labor Day, and then go back to falling, I expect.

Why not buy a bicycle? You live longer and the time you lose commuting you'd make up, because you wouldn't have to spent hours complaining about it online.;)

Paying 3.59 for it in SW Florida. Predict sub 3.50 by Aug 25.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080819/ap_on_bi_ge/oil_prices

National average is $3.73.

I should have said the CA average price.

But it'll jump up in a couple weeks for Labor Day, and then go back to falling, I expect.

It looks like you were right after all:nice:

regular is below $3.50 at some stations here.

What I'm reading online is kind of amusing. People are saying that the decrease in gas prices is better for them then the stimulus cheques they received.

I hope the trend continues, I remember in L.A. two years ago, when gas hit $3.00 for the first time, the whole city revolted and took the bus, carpooled, biked, etc. until we got it back down to almost $2.00, but then everybody felt a sense of accomplishment and stopped ridesharing, commuting, or whatever they were doing, and up the price went again. If we can make a permanent shift in how we commute and travel, we can keep the cost lower by permanently decreasing demand.

What I'm reading online is kind of amusing. People are saying that the decrease in gas prices is better for them then the stimulus cheques they received.

I hope the trend continues, I remember in L.A. two years ago, when gas hit $3.00 for the first time, the whole city revolted and took the bus, carpooled, biked, etc. until we got it back down to almost $2.00, but then everybody felt a sense of accomplishment and stopped ridesharing, commuting, or whatever they were doing, and up the price went again. If we can make a permanent shift in how we commute and travel, we can keep the cost lower by permanently decreasing demand.

Sure. But most Americans don't have the desire to think things through like that, though. Their focus is mostly on the present and what immediately affects them.

I just paid 3.73 last week. :|

I started driving the Yukon again :D

I want to do my part for the environment

$2.75 in No. Calif. !

Me thinks the oil bubble broke :rolleyes:

The eerie thing is I just went through the CBT commodities list and EVERY SINGLE ONE is down sharply the last month .. wheat , soybeans, beef , eggs , corn , metals , lumber .. and the only FX I could find that is up against the dollar is the Yen

I have only seen inflation the last 50+ years .. it is rather unsettling to witness deflation although I do prefer $30 fillups to $50 ones

My take is: globally, hedge funds are unloading stocks, futures, derivatives .. anything to raise cash.

The only safe haven seems to be the piggy bank

What controls oil prices is largely investor speculation in oil futures. If enough investors think like Monster, the price will go down.

I love old prediction threads.

$2.79 in Vegas. $2.74 is the national average.

Craziness.

Last night it was $2.49/gallon here.

2.69 is the lowest I have seen here in Mesa, Az.

It's circling the $3 mark here in L.A. Some places are still as high as $3.30, some are below $2. Out by the airport it's probably still $3.50+.

$2.26 a gallon here this weekend.

No one can afford to drive, so the gas supply is backing up. Hence, the price drop.

Yeah, now the problem isn't that people can't afford the gas, it's that people can't afford to take so much as one hour off of work to drive anywhere.

Stupid economy.

Nice prediction, nonetheless!

I have only seen inflation the last 50+ years .. it is rather unsettling to witness deflation although I do prefer $30 fillups to $50 ones

It's still inflationary, considering gas was $1.16 here before the Bubble started; it's $2.86 here now, down from bumping $3.90 or so a few months ago. I don't drive much, so I didn't keep a running record of the ups and downs, but it's pretty sad people are actually relieved at the prices being merely more than doubled. Excellent market psychology at work here, get people used to super inflationary prices, and then drop them some and they dance in the streets when it settles in at more than double the prices at the start of the cycle.

time to halt production OPEC!

$2.15 at Sam's Club.

$2.04 last night.