As you can see, in comparison to normal competitive seats with an incumbent, these marginal open seats change hands far more frequently. which showcases the importance of potential retirements in potentially competitive districts.

Republican aspirations toward capturing the 16 seats necessary to retake control of the House would be significantly damaged by a large number of retirements. To date, there are several Republican members who may retire in the coming months, which could give Democrats an increased number of targets. Seven-term incumbent Ray LaHood (R-IL) has already announced that he will retire after this term, which could put his district in play for the first time in years. Other possible GOP retirees include former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert (R-IL), Ralph Regula (R-OH), Bill Young (R-FL), Jo Ann Davis (R-VA), John McHugh (R-NY), Don Manzullo (R-IL), and Barbara Cubin (R-WY).

Another possible GOP retirement could have an effect on the power balance in the Senate. Longtime Senator John Warner from Virginia is said to be considering retirement, and if he were to retire, his seat would automatically be in play in 2008. The prospects for Democrats would improve greatly if popular former Governor Mark Warner were to enter the race, which could increase Democratic turnout and even have an effect on the presidential race in Virginia .

NCEC will be watching intently for GOP retirements in marginal districts, so we can pounce on any opportunity to a win a seat in Congress. The fireworks that defined 2006 are not likely to repeat in such a short time, which makes identifying competitive races all the more important. NCEC provides the most in-depth targeting available, to give Democrats in these marginal districts a real opportunity to win and expand our fragile majority.

http://www.ncec.org/electioninsider/election_8_09_07.html

Warner's retirement is a big deal, given his seniority.

Seven of the 10 "safe" Democrats have served four or more terms. These include party fixtures such as Sens. Joe Biden, Dick Durbin, John Kerry and Jay Rockefeller. Only one Democratic seat, that of Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu, is realistically considered in play (some also say the same of South Dakota Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson's seat). Not even counting fundraising advantages, favorable Democratic voter-identification numbers or turnout, it is clear that the Senate terrain for 2008 slopes steeply toward the Democratic Party. Here are the most hotly contested races in descending order of Republican vulnerability — eight in total worth watching. Ten months out, a Democratic gain of three to six seats seems likely. A Democratic gain of as many as eight seats is not out of the question, which would bring today's Democratic caucus of 51 senators to the edge of a filibuster-proof majority.

• Virginia. With Republican Sen. John Warner retiring, the popularity of former Gov. Mark Warner, a Democrat, couples with the purpling of Virginia to move this seat into favorable territory for Democrats. Mr. Warner will face former Republican Gov. Jim Gilmore, a strong conservative, not the moderate Rep. Tom Davis. Mr. Gilmore, who tested the presidential waters briefly last year before dropping out, citing fund-raising difficulties, faces a formidable obstacle in Mr. Warner, who brings solid financing and the "Warner Democrat" brand in a state trending blue.

• New Hampshire. Following a 100-year Democratic landslide in the state legislature and a loss for both of New Hampshire's Republican House members (Charlie Bass and Jeb Bradley), Republican Sen. John Sununu faces a tough re-election rerun. He defeated former Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen by 20,000 votes in 2002, but will be painted as a rubber stamp for the Bush agenda in a state now called the "new Vermont" for its leftward political trend.

• Colorado. The retirement of Republican Sen. Wayne Allard gives Democrats an opportunity to capitalize again on their recent success in Colorado. Democratic Rep. Mark Udall, cousin of New Mexico's Democratic Senate hopeful and Rep. Tom Udall, will face former Republican Rep. Bob Schaffer. The strongly conservative Mr. Schaffer has polled well in recent months but faces the Mountain West's recent Democratic headwinds and heightened party interest.

• New Mexico. Retiring Republican Sen. Pete Domenici leaves his party in uncertain circumstances. All three of New Mexico's House members are after this seat: Democratic Rep. Tom Udall and Republican Reps. Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson. In June, Mr. Pearce and Mrs. Wilson will square off, which raises financing and preparedness questions for November against Mr. Udall.

• Minnesota. Polls show Republican Sen. Norm Coleman only a few points ahead of either of his possible Democratic challengers, comedian and left-wing provocateur Al Franken and trial lawyer Mike Ciresi. The two Democrats face off on Feb. 5. Which party will carry this seat must be considered uncertain, particularly when the incumbent is struggling to remain over the 50 percent mark in polls in a "swing state."

• Oregon. Republican Sen. Gordon Smith is likely to face Democratic establishment candidate Jeff Merkley, speaker of the state house, and is favored despite his state's Democratic leanings. Much will likely depend on presidential coattails.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/article/20080117/EDITORIAL/287244237/1013

So where does the fight for the Senate really stand?

Republicans are certain to lose the Virginia open seat and could well lose opens in New Mexico and Colorado. New Hampshire Republican John Sununu is the most endangered Senate incumbent in his party, as is Landrieu in hers. Both are in serious trouble.

Coleman obviously has a fight on his hands, as does Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska), who is damaged by a scandal that has touched him and already enveloped a number of current and former state Republican officials.

Two Republicans who are potentially vulnerable appear better off at the moment, though that could change.

Maine’s Collins still has strong poll numbers and is clearly well-liked in her state. Her challenger, Rep. Tom Allen (D), still has time to redefine her, and her GOP label isn’t an asset, but at this point she looks formidable.

And in Oregon, Democratic state Speaker Jeff Merkley ought to spend more time trying to defeat activist Steve Novick for his party’s nomination than running a general election campaign against Smith.

The most likely outcome right now — far too far out from Election Day to take very seriously — is a Democratic gain of three to six seats. More is possible, of course. But be careful where you get your information. Not everything that is written is fit to print.


Rothberg (http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2008/03/all-handicapping-thats-fit-to-print-on.html)

Not as many contested seats as I originally thought. Who can carry more of these on their coattails, Ospama or Hillary or McCain?

I can't speak for Florida, but Virginia will not be riding the coat-tails of the big three. As was stated, Obama or Hillary are going to be riding the coat-tails of Warner in VA. And, to a lesser degree, Jim Webb. And even that is not assured, as a Virginia Democrat is not quite the same as a New York one. Virginians are not afraid to split their votes.

I smell blood.